Estimating the Impact of the Covid-19 Emergency on Tax Revenues in Guatemala: A Time Series Approach

Authors

JULIO H. COLE, Universidad Francisco MarroquinFollow

JEL Code

C22, C50, C53, H20, H68, I18

Abstract

Applications of time series models serve two different purposes: (1) as forecasting techniques, they are used to project the trajectory of a variable of interest during a certain number of future periods; (2) in the analysis of interventions, they are used to evaluate the effect of a significant disturbance on the process being studied. We use both types of application to study monthly tax revenues in Guatemala. In Section 2 we use data for 2010-2019 in order to compare two alternative models: (a) the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) model, and (b) the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model. In Section 3 we use post-2019 data to estimate the fiscal effects of the emergency measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

Recommended Citation

COLE, JULIO H. (2021) "Estimating the Impact of the Covid-19 Emergency on Tax Revenues in Guatemala: A Time Series Approach," Journal of New Finance: Vol. 2: No. 3, Article 1.
DOI: 10.46671/2521-2486.1015
Available at: https://jnf.ufm.edu/journal/vol2/iss3/1

Submission Date

10-27-2021

Approval Date

11-3-2021

Publication Date

11-27-2021